Saturday, May 20, 2006
A Shortage of Resources
The current U.S. birthrate it almost perfectly on target to maintain current population levels. According to Donald Sensing's post a birthrate of 2.1 per couple is the optimum for population replacement. The current birthrate for the U.S. is 2.08. But the U.S. Census Bureau predicts that the population of the U.S. will increase from 282,125,000 in 2000 to 419,854,00 in 2050, an increase of nearly 140 million although the birthrate is slightly below population replacement levels.
Why the large increase? Immigration, obviously. My question is, “How large of a population can the U.S. support in a manner at least as good as today’s? According to this paper from Cornell University, we already far past a population level that can be sustained long term on solar energy alone.
California’s population grows at a rate of 60 people per hour. Negative Population Growth (NPG) adds to the dire outlook of overpopulation. Overpopulation is a world wide problem. Some think the Earth is more than a billion people beyond sustainable levels.
Despite our unwillingness to face reality, our country, and the world, possesses finite resources. To paraphrase Dennis Miller, water is our planet’s most abundant resource (other than air). Water is also the most essential to life other than air. In many areas we are already experiencing dramatic shortages of water. For many people, especially those who live in the Eastern United States, this is hard to imagine. Currently, I live within a quarter mile of the Ohio River. I grew up a few hundred yards from the Tennessee River. Both places get a lot of rainfall and water is everywhere. But such is not the case in the Western United States or other parts of the world.
The children’s website, Science for Kids, discusses the water shortage in the western U.S.
More on the water shortage:
MSNBC: “Colorado River lower than during Dust Bowl”
Time.com: “Water has been called the oil of the 21st century. It is in ever shorter supply, and its price is rising in thirsty cities and farming regions from the Middle East to the American West. And what Kuwait is to oil, Canada could be to water.”
This is, like overpopulation, an international problem.
National Geographic: “That the planet's fresh water is consumed profligately is beyond doubt, particularly in agriculture, which accounts for 70 percent of all water use. Getting more out of each drop of water is imperative, for as the world's population increases and the demand for food soars, unchecked irrigation poses a serious threat to rivers, wetlands, and lakes. China's Yellow River, siphoned off by farmers and cities, has failed to reach the sea most years during the past decade. In North America not only does the Colorado River barely make it to the Gulf of California, but last year even the Rio Grande dried up before it merged with the Gulf of Mexico. In Central Asia the Aral Sea shrank by half after the Soviets began diverting water for cotton and other crops. Elsewhere, countless small rivers have gone dry.”
The BBC makes the obvious connection between overpopulation and the water shortage. “If you want to induce mental meltdown, the statistics of the worsening global water crisis are a surefire winner.
Two-fifths of the world's people already face serious shortages, and water-borne diseases fill half its hospital beds. “
Of course, we are all aware, hopefully, of the oil/gas shortages, lack of new oil refineries, lack of oil exploration, lack of new drilling, etc. As the U.S. creeps closer and closer to a major crisis, little is being done to avert the crisis nor even officially recognize it. Controlling our population is an important facet of the solution.
If we allow millions to illegally immigrant into our country the task of successfully dealing with energy shortages, water shortages, health care needs, the need for decent housing, ad infinitum, becomes much greater. We often accuse politicians of acting according to the polls and thus creating a short-term approach. Many of us are just as guilty because we use poll results to exalt our positions. We need long term planning and action and we, the public, must push for it.
Our government demonstrated quite clearly, at all levels, during the Katrina crisis it’s inability to act effectively in a short-term crisis. There is no reason it will do any better in a long-term crisis. Politicians are too worried about polls and pandering for votes. We all need to forget about the polls and insist on needed action.
Daily Kos, which I rarely read (if fact, I found this thanks to WhitesCreek), proposes a comprehensive energy plan. I’ve only skimmed through it but it seems to be reasonable and is, at least, a starting point.
But how many millions of people can we continue to let into our country, legally or illegally, before the sheer numbers overwhelm our resources and ability to adapt? The answer to this is beyond the scope of my skills and knowledge. However, I do know we need to slow down and figure this out before it’s too late. Many say that the U.S. cannot be the world’s policeman. The U.S. can’t be the world’s welfare system either. We need to do what we can but if we destroy ourselves in the process, what then?
Why the large increase? Immigration, obviously. My question is, “How large of a population can the U.S. support in a manner at least as good as today’s? According to this paper from Cornell University, we already far past a population level that can be sustained long term on solar energy alone.
At present levels of fertility, mortality, and migration, the U.S. population will rise one-third by 2080. A modest increase in fertility could drive it past a half billion. We could be heading eventually toward population densities like those in present-day China. Comparisons to China clearly emphasize why the United States will be unable to maintain its current level of prosperity and high standard of living, which is based on its available land, water, energy, and resources. We know that supplies of fossil energy, a nonrenewable resource, are being rapidly depleted. In just 16 years, most U.S. oil resources will be consumed. Fortunately, natural gas reserves will last for nearly 50 years while coal reserves will carry us about 100 years.These conclusions are not very encouraging.
With a population of 40 to 100 million, the United States could become self-sustaining on solar energy while maintaining a quality environment, provided that sound energy conservation and environmental policies were in effect to preserve soil, water, air, and biological resources that sustain life.
California’s population grows at a rate of 60 people per hour. Negative Population Growth (NPG) adds to the dire outlook of overpopulation. Overpopulation is a world wide problem. Some think the Earth is more than a billion people beyond sustainable levels.
Despite our unwillingness to face reality, our country, and the world, possesses finite resources. To paraphrase Dennis Miller, water is our planet’s most abundant resource (other than air). Water is also the most essential to life other than air. In many areas we are already experiencing dramatic shortages of water. For many people, especially those who live in the Eastern United States, this is hard to imagine. Currently, I live within a quarter mile of the Ohio River. I grew up a few hundred yards from the Tennessee River. Both places get a lot of rainfall and water is everywhere. But such is not the case in the Western United States or other parts of the world.
The children’s website, Science for Kids, discusses the water shortage in the western U.S.
An area called the Colorado River Basin, which stretches from Wyoming to Arizona, is in the middle of the worst drought in at least 500 years. Rivers in this region are at their lowest levels ever recorded.Here is a paper on water use along the Colorado River.
If the drought continues, the results could be disastrous. The river basin is a major source of water for big cities, including Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Los Angeles. Entire ecosystems depend on this water, as do ranchers and many other people who live and work in the area.
More on the water shortage:
MSNBC: “Colorado River lower than during Dust Bowl”
Time.com: “Water has been called the oil of the 21st century. It is in ever shorter supply, and its price is rising in thirsty cities and farming regions from the Middle East to the American West. And what Kuwait is to oil, Canada could be to water.”
This is, like overpopulation, an international problem.
National Geographic: “That the planet's fresh water is consumed profligately is beyond doubt, particularly in agriculture, which accounts for 70 percent of all water use. Getting more out of each drop of water is imperative, for as the world's population increases and the demand for food soars, unchecked irrigation poses a serious threat to rivers, wetlands, and lakes. China's Yellow River, siphoned off by farmers and cities, has failed to reach the sea most years during the past decade. In North America not only does the Colorado River barely make it to the Gulf of California, but last year even the Rio Grande dried up before it merged with the Gulf of Mexico. In Central Asia the Aral Sea shrank by half after the Soviets began diverting water for cotton and other crops. Elsewhere, countless small rivers have gone dry.”
The BBC makes the obvious connection between overpopulation and the water shortage. “If you want to induce mental meltdown, the statistics of the worsening global water crisis are a surefire winner.
Two-fifths of the world's people already face serious shortages, and water-borne diseases fill half its hospital beds. “
Of course, we are all aware, hopefully, of the oil/gas shortages, lack of new oil refineries, lack of oil exploration, lack of new drilling, etc. As the U.S. creeps closer and closer to a major crisis, little is being done to avert the crisis nor even officially recognize it. Controlling our population is an important facet of the solution.
If we allow millions to illegally immigrant into our country the task of successfully dealing with energy shortages, water shortages, health care needs, the need for decent housing, ad infinitum, becomes much greater. We often accuse politicians of acting according to the polls and thus creating a short-term approach. Many of us are just as guilty because we use poll results to exalt our positions. We need long term planning and action and we, the public, must push for it.
Our government demonstrated quite clearly, at all levels, during the Katrina crisis it’s inability to act effectively in a short-term crisis. There is no reason it will do any better in a long-term crisis. Politicians are too worried about polls and pandering for votes. We all need to forget about the polls and insist on needed action.
Daily Kos, which I rarely read (if fact, I found this thanks to WhitesCreek), proposes a comprehensive energy plan. I’ve only skimmed through it but it seems to be reasonable and is, at least, a starting point.
But how many millions of people can we continue to let into our country, legally or illegally, before the sheer numbers overwhelm our resources and ability to adapt? The answer to this is beyond the scope of my skills and knowledge. However, I do know we need to slow down and figure this out before it’s too late. Many say that the U.S. cannot be the world’s policeman. The U.S. can’t be the world’s welfare system either. We need to do what we can but if we destroy ourselves in the process, what then?
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